Measurements, not opinions.

Bitcoin: Order Book Walls and Liquidation Levels Do Not Act as a Magnet, and the Weekend Move Is Not Retraced

After a Bitcoin weekend the Friday level is touched again in the following week in 74.7% of cases, the equally distant mirror level in 74.3% (261 weekends, 2017–2022). Order book walls do not pull price in (38% towards, 41% away), order book imbalance earns at most +2.8 bps gross over 60 minutes against 10 bps of costs, and an estimated liquidation map hits real liquidations just as well with shifted open interest. Funding low and long/short ratio reached t 3.8 and 3.7 in 2020–2024 and −41 and −2 bps in the holdout.

Charm Sell-Offs, Double Tops with Sweeps, Fibonacci Targets and the 15:50 Effect: 970 Tests, No Hit

Four popular trader ideas, 970 pre-registered tests on index, FX and gold CFDs over 2015–2022, and no hit after the multiple-testing correction. In expiry week the first hour after a high open runs better on average (+6.3 against +1.5 bps), not worse. The FX double top hits its target in 48.1% of cases, a random walk in 50%, also with sweep and internal sweep (49.6%), and no Fibonacci target changes the expectation (all −2.7 to −3.0 bps net). In Berlin time the 15:50 window is the best ten-minute window in the DAX gross, but at +0.7 bps it is only a third of the costs.

MeasuredFresh Scan 2026 · 6 min read

The Expected Move Holds 80% of the Time, but a Random Market Does Too, and Its Band Is Not a Range Boundary

The expected move contained the close on 80.1% of days in 2015–2022; a random market without direction manages 80.7%. After the touch the price runs back less often than in a random market (38.5 against 42.9%), and all 15 rules against the band lose after costs. The one trace, a Nasdaq breakout long (+0.118 R), had no neighbours and earned +0.046 R (t 0.75) in the single holdout.

After a Strong Pre-Open Hour the Move After the Open Is Bigger, Not Smaller

The assumption: after a hard run in the hour before the cash open, less comes at the open. Measured over 2015–2022 on DAX, FTSE 100, Dow, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, it is the other way round: after the strongest third of pre-open pushes, the range of the first hour is 19% (Europe, t 7.6) and 29% (USA, t 10.8) larger than after the weakest. It only gets smaller relative to the pre-open range (median 1.40 instead of 2.37 in Europe), and a random market without direction shows that almost identically (1.34 instead of 2.24). The hour before gives no direction, and after costs nothing is left.

No edgeFresh Scan 2026 · 12 min read

Our own breakout rules, re-measured: none of 25 beats the random market

On 29 September we showed that our old backtest chain booked profits even on a random market. Here is the re-run: 25 combinations of breakout rule and market, 55,337 trades from 2015 to June 2026. On the corrected chain the mean is −0.08 R per trade after costs, and no combination has an advantage over the random market. On real broker ticks none of the eleven combinations we tested reaches t ≥ 2. Six filters passed the search period, none passed the holdout.

No edgeFresh Scan 2026 · 6 min read

The Day After a Big US Day: The Rebound After Down Days Is a Lottery Driven by a Few Panic Days

The rule “trade against the direction on the day after a US cash-session move of at least 1 ATR” looked good in the 2015–2022 search period: +14.8 bps per day (t 2.17). Split by direction, nothing happens after up days (t 0.62, holdout t 0.15). After down days there is a rebound on average (+20.9 and +27.6 bps) that hangs on a few panic days: in the 2023 to June 2026 holdout, 9 April 2025 alone supplies 65% of the total, the five best days supply 138%, without them the mean is negative, and three of four years are negative.

No edgeFresh Scan 2026 · 6 min read

+982% From the First Candle? Rebuilt, It Is Leverage Times a Bull Market, With No Detectable Lead Over Always-Long

A publicly shown backtest promises +982% from 2019 to 2026: if the first 5-minute candle after the open closes above the EMA(12), go long, below it, go short. We do not know its exact rules and rebuilt the obvious variants on Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow and DAX. The order of magnitude comes from leverage times a bull market: on the Nasdaq the rule makes +129% net without leverage, “always long” in the same hours +122% (computed without costs), and with four times leverage +573% against +480%. The lead over “always long” is +2.07 bps per day (t 0.57), and on the Dow the rule is negative.

No edgeFresh Scan 2026 · 5 min read

Forced Flows, Second Round: Several Flows Are Visible, None Is Tradable, and the FTSE Event Day Stays the Only Finding

We tested nine more forced flows, from pension funds and trend followers to leveraged ETFs, a collar fund and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The pension paper replicates for 1990–2022 (+6.95 bps per day, t 2.85); in the 2023 to 2026 holdout it makes +3.2 bps (t 0.6), and on CFDs after costs −13.9 bps. Gold's volatility jumps to 1.77 times at the Shanghai open, with no direction, and none of four older time-of-day observations held in the holdout. The FTSE event day stays the only confirmed finding (q 0.002).

Gold Trend Followers Are Long Beta: Profits Only in Rising Phases and Almost Only Long, in None More Than Buy and Hold

We split four simple trend rules on gold daily prices from 2005 to September 2026 into four market phases. Since 2023 the 200-day average looks brilliant at +23.7% a year, but it was long 91% of the time, and buy and hold made +24.2%. In none of the three rising phases does a rule beat buy and hold, in 2013–2018 every variant loses, and in 2019–2022 the rules sit between −5.5% and +2.4% a year. The short side of the three long/short rules lost in 9 of 12 cells.

News Trading in Gold and Bitcoin: The Minute Backtest Earns on NFP and CPI, a Random Market Earns the Same, Real Ticks Leave No Proven Edge

A breakout backtest on gold minute candles “earns” +0.40 R per trade on NFP and CPI days (t 2.5). A random market with the same candles earns +0.47 R. The reason is execution: the calculation fills at the level, while real market orders on these days fill on average 3.9 to 4.5 USD behind it, at a 2.00 USD spread. On real ticks +0.27 R remain (t 1.1, 49 trades), second-level rules are negative in gold even before costs (−1.4 and −1.8 bps), and Bitcoin shows the same picture.

Overnight Breakouts in Asia and Gold: All 18 Configurations Lose on Real Ticks, and Before the Spread They Sit at Zero

We tested overnight breakout rules from our own rulebook: a breakout from an early 15-minute candle in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan, and in gold ahead of the Shanghai Gold Exchange open. On real broker ticks (April 2023 to September 2026) all 18 configurations lose, between −0.007 and −0.093 R per trade on average. Before the entry spread they sit between −0.022 and +0.040 R, and the spread costs 0.038 to 0.077 R. On minute data none of 9 candidates is confirmed in the 2023 to June 2026 holdout, and gold does what a random market does, minus costs.

MeasuredFresh Scan 2026 · 10 min read

The Overnight Effect Is Measurable, but With CFDs Each Night Nets About Zero, and Buy and Hold Beats It

The return of US equity indices came almost entirely overnight in 2000–2018: +3.22 bps per night (t 4.13) against −0.23 bps during the day. In the holdout from 2019 to October 2026 the day caught up (+3.07 bps by day, +4.25 bps overnight). Being long every night with a CFD costs 2 bps of spread and 1.5 to 2.1 bps of swap and ends at −0.68 bps net (search) and −0.03 bps (holdout), indistinguishable from zero. Simply holding earns more per day, in all four samples.

Buying RSI(2) Dips on US Index CFDs: +48 bps per Trade in the Holdout After Costs, but Small in Risk Units

Larry Connors’ published rule (buy pullbacks in an uptrend) earned +48 bps per trade after costs on US index CFDs in the single 2019–2026 holdout (t 3.6) and beat random entries by +34 bps (t 2.4). In risk units it stays small: +0.07 to +0.18 R per trade, about 8 trades a year per market, and at 1% risk per trade roughly 0.6% a year to 2018 and 1.2% in 2019–2026. Stops do not help, and the three US indices are practically one signal. Caveats apply: chosen among three related rules by the highest t, a bull-market holdout, published since 2008.

MeasuredFresh Scan 2026 · 9 min read

Swing Patterns on CFDs: Financing Eats a Median 62–70% of the Move, and in the Holdout Only the Upward Drift Earns

We tested breakouts, pullbacks, candle patterns, calendar holding and momentum on 4-hour, daily and weekly charts with the costs of index and gold CFDs. Of 1,920 daily and weekly variants and 500 4-hour variants, none gets through the holdout and the global multiple-testing correction (best q 0.20). What earns net in the 2019–2026 holdout is mostly the upward drift: against buy and hold of the same exposure, no excess t exceeds 0.92. At holding periods of 5 to 10 days the swap eats a median 62 to 70% of the gross move, and what is significant is mostly losing.

VIX Curve, VVIX and Dealer Gamma Predict the Width of the Next US Session, Not Its Direction

When the VIX curve is inverted (VIX9D above VIX, or VIX above VIX3M), the VVIX is high or dealer gamma is low, the next US session is on average 0.12 to 0.35 typical daily ranges wider. This held in the search period and in the single holdout 2019–2026 (t 2.6 to 5.4), also at the same VIX level. The direction of the day does not change: long and short rules after these states sit at zero after costs. DIX, SKEW and the put/call ratio give no timing.

MeasuredFresh Scan 2026 · 10 min read

897,000 Tests, About 150 Pattern Families, One Confirmed Finding: a Fresh Start on Eleven Years of Minute Data

We put everything we thought we knew aside and searched 15 markets from scratch for intraday patterns: candles, chart formations, indicators, Al Brooks, Hougaard, the Market Wizards, smart money concepts, macro events, psychology, machine learning, brute force and forced flows. About 897,000 logged tests, 19 candidates each run once in an untouched holdout. After the global multiple-testing correction one finding remains: the FTSE on index event days. A second one, the Tokyo fix, runs as a pre-registered forward test.

Edge confirmedFresh Scan 2026 · 10 min read

Index Event Days: the FTSE Falls Into the Auction Print, and It Held Out of Sample

When FTSE 100, STOXX and MSCI rebalance, passive funds must trade in the closing auction. A short held until after the auction print made +8.3 bps per event day in the 2015–2022 search period, +11.5 bps in the untouched 2023–2026 holdout (t 3.9, 22 of 27 days positive) and +11.9 bps on real broker ticks. It is the only pattern of our scan that passed the global multiple-testing correction. Small, rare, with clear caveats.

MeasuredFoundations · 11 min read

The Random Market as a Ruler: Our Own Backtest Chain Earned Up to 0.5 R per Trade on Candles Without Direction

We ran our own breakout backtest chain, unchanged, on a random market: every minute candle mirrored around its open, same volatility, no direction. The best setup still booked +0.51 R per trade, and 393 of 498 cells showed a significantly positive result where minus costs was the only honest answer. Three sources: a volume filter that confirms late while the fill stays at the level, fills at the level on first-minute breaks, and a trailing stop simulated on 15-minute candles. After the repair the bias of the best setup falls from +0.65 to +0.05 R.

No edgeFresh Scan 2026 · 9 min read

80% of Breakouts Fail, Just as in a Random Market: Al Brooks' Price Action Against Chance

Brooks' rule of thumb that about 80% of breakouts from a range fail is right as a number: 80.3% in DAX and FTSE. A random market with the same volatility also gives 80.3%. His core setup, the second pullback at the 20-EMA, reaches its 1R target in 49.4% of trades, a random walk manages 50.1%. Of 3,586 rule variants on five indices plus gold and EURUSD, none reaches a net t of 2, the maximum is 1.95.

682,000 Rules Searched: the Best Find (t 3.65) Is Below the Typical Random-Market Find (3.81)

We combined 136 building blocks into about 682,000 simple intraday rules on eight markets and repeated the same search 20 times on random markets. The best real find has t 3.65, the best find of a typical random market t 3.81 (reality check p = 0.71). The 50 best rules confirm 0 of 50 in 2020–2022, and the one rule we flagged as an observation was negative in the holdout (t −0.59). Search long enough and you always find something with t above 3.

No edgeFresh Scan 2026 · 9 min read

Candlestick Patterns Intraday: 31,663 Variants, No Hit After Multiple-Test Correction, and the Bitcoin Outlier Fails in the Holdout

We tested twelve candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar, doji, inside bar, NR7 and more) in 31,663 variants on eleven markets, against the ordinary candle of the same colour and against a random market run with the same code. None of the pre-defined variants passes the multiple-test correction. The one striking find, a bearish engulfing in a Bitcoin uptrend with +50.4 bps and t 4.60 in the search period, returns −11.7 bps in the holdout (t −1.15).

Chart Formations Intraday: the Price Target Is Reached Before the Stop in 46.5% of Trades, a Random Walk Manages 46.8%

Double top, head and shoulders, triangle, wedge, channel, trendline break and flag: 12,429 test variants on eleven markets. The classic price target comes before the stop in 46.5% of about 2.9 million bracket trades, a random walk reaches 46.8% and a random market run with the same code 46.3%. The most striking DAX flag shows t 3.56 with eight out of eight positive years, yet a random market with identical code returns +10.0 bps (t 1.86).

Fear, Sentiment, Moon: Random Markets Produce More Strong Results Than the Real Data

We tested fear spikes, AAII sentiment, put/call, geopolitics, earnings surprises, the clock change, sun and moon against 327 pre-registered trading rules. None holds: on the random market 7 rules reach a gross absolute t of 3 or more, on the real data none. The media-pessimism effect collapses from t 2.35 to 0.70 with a three-day publication lag, and the NFCI candidate (+5.29 basis points in the holdout, t 1.98) fails the global correction.

Negative Start, Negative Last Hour? The Signs Agree on 48.5 to 50.8% of Days

The rule of thumb “if the start is negative, the last hour is negative too” does not hold on DAX, FTSE, CAC, Dow, NQ and SPX (about 2,000 days each, 2015–2022). The first and last hour share the same sign on 48.5 to 50.8% of days, and on 49 to 51% in the 2023 to 2026 holdout. After a negative start the last hour is negative in 46 to 50% of cases, against a base rate of 46 to 51%. The rule “last hour in the direction of the first” loses 1.0 to 3.6 basis points net per trade.

Two Forced Flows Tested: The Last Hour Tends to Rise After Shock Days, and the Fiscal Year-End Works Without the Fix

Volatility-target funds should have to sell into the close after big move days. After 2-sigma days, however, the last hour in the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 tends to rise: a short loses even gross (−1.2 to −4.2 bps), and bigger shocks do not help. The Japanese fiscal year-end earns +6.3 bps in a round trip around the Tokyo fix in the search period (n 48, t 2.0) and +6.7 bps in the holdout (n 21, t 1.4). Without the five best days the holdout is negative, and the same days also win in a window without the fix.

Six Fixings and Settlement Events Tested: The Reaction Is Smaller Than the Costs, or Absent

London 4pm fix, LBMA gold fixes, Bitcoin funding, the CME gap, the CNY fixing and the ECB reference rate: we tested six forced flows on minute data 2015–2022, five of them with a direction fixed in advance. In the London fix the best gross cell is +0.69 bps (t 3.5) against about 1.15 bps of cost. Bitcoin gaps of 50 bps or more fill within 24 hours 44% of the time, while the mirror level an equal distance away is reached 50% of the time. The CNY fixing shows no monotonicity with the surprise, and the ECB window is calmer than the minutes before it.

No edgeFresh Scan 2026 · 9 min read

Gaps, Shocks, Levels: 2,435 Rules Without an Edge, and Round Numbers Break More Often Than Random Levels

We tested 2,435 rules on intraday price dynamics: momentum, gap fill, one-minute shocks, range expansion, opening-range breaks and level touches. None passes the multiple-testing correction, and the intraday momentum of the Gao paper does not exist in 2015–2022 (−1.3 bps net). Round numbers repel price less often than placebo levels in FX and gold (43.8% against 47.5%, t −5.3). The single observation, the US reversal after a day of at least 1 ATR, made +24.2 bps in the holdout (t 1.33), 65% of it from one day.

Trade Management Creates No Edge: 3,780 Hougaard Variants End at Minus Costs on a Random Market

Tight stops, adding to winners and trailing shape the equity curve, but not the expectancy. On a random market, all 3,780 rebuilt Hougaard variants end at +0.02 R gross and −0.238 R net. On real prices, moves of 0.3 to 0.5 ATR continue 52–54% of the time instead of 50%, yet 0 of 30,240 net tests reach t > 2. The one remaining lead, gap-and-go, shows +0.167 R in the search period and −0.087 R in the holdout.

Does One Market Lead Another? Lead-Lag Is Real, but at Most 0.58 Times the Cost

Of 58,070 lead-lag cells across 15 markets, 291 reach an absolute t above 4, against 3 on the random market. The structure is real, but among these cells the largest ratio of gross return to cost is 0.58, and we require at least 2. Session handovers cannot be told apart from the random market, and the only holdout candidate earns +4.13 basis points at t 0.55.

Machine Learning for Intraday Trading: Out-of-Sample IC of +0.004, None of 79 Combinations Usable Net

We trained ridge regression and XGBoost on 98 lookahead-free features in a walk-forward over 79 combinations of market, time and horizon. The out-of-sample rank correlation is +0.004 (ridge) and +0.006 (XGBoost): measurably above a random market, economically zero. None of the 79 combinations reaches net t > 2, and the model rule loses 1.4 to 1.6 bps per trade on average. The rule distilled from the scan (USDJPY on the last days of the month) showed t 0.61 in the holdout.

FOMC, NFP, CPI and ECB Intraday: 29 of 580 Tests Are Significant, as Many as Chance Delivers

We tested macro and central bank events (FOMC, NFP, CPI, ECB) and earnings on minute data: drift before the event, continuing or fading the reaction, announcement premium, FOMC cycle. In the 580 tests of the broad scan, 29 reach p below 0.05, and chance expects 29. The best find, gold long in the night before the US CPI, made +15.7 basis points in the search (t 3.2) and −5.7 in the holdout (t −1.1). Volatility follows the events, direction does not.

No edgeCandle patterns · 9 min read

None of the 16 Market Wizards Rules Earns Its Costs: 54 Hits at p < 0.05, 51 Expected

We tested 16 published rules by Raschke, Williams, Crabel, Sperandeo, Fisher and Schwartz mechanically on ten markets, 2,058 tests in the 2015–2022 search period. None passes the multiple-testing correction, 54 reach p < 0.05 against about 51 expected. The rules capture 1–4 bps gross, costs are about 2.2 bps. Crabel's NR7 breakout on gold and FX, the only bright spot (+3.49 bps, t 2.39), flips to −3.21 bps in the holdout.

Measured Moves and AB=CD: the Second Leg Equals the First Exactly as Often in a Random Market

A leg down, a partial retracement, and the next leg is supposed to match the first. Across 66,000 ZigZag patterns on DAX, Dow and Nasdaq at four scales, the 1.0 projection is reached before the retracement high is retaken in 44 to 47% of cases. A synthetic market built from the same bars with all path memory destroyed reaches it in 44 to 46%. No level bounces more than in the random market; where a difference is significant, price runs through the level harder. Measured moves are geometry, not structure.

Nasdaq Down at 8:00, Then Short the Retest? Not One of 1,392 Variants Is Significantly Positive, and the Holdout Loses 0.15 R

The idea: if the Nasdaq trades below the prior close at 08:00 Berlin, short the first retest. We ran 1,392 variants and none is positive at t 2 or more. The primary variant loses 0.263 R per trade (t −4.95) and 0.148 R in the holdout (t −2.32). Gross, the retest is a coin flip, and the random market shows the same −0.2 to −0.3 R net.

Do Turning Points Cluster at the Overnight High and the Prior Close? Yes, but a Random Market Shows the Same

At the overnight high, the overnight low and the prior close there are 7 to 25% more turning points than at a placebo level next to them. A random market without any directional structure produces the same cluster (19 to 22%), because price spends more time there. Per visit to the zone, price ends in a turning point in 37 to 39% of cases, at placebo levels in 39 to 40%. The holdout 2023 to 2026 confirms the picture: no level meets the clustering criterion fixed in advance.

Seven Published Anomalies Replicated: Gross at 40–80% of the Paper Size, None Survives Costs

We pre-registered seven published intraday anomalies and replicated them on index, FX and gold CFDs over 2015–2022. Gross, the effects come back at mostly 40–80% of the paper's size; net, none holds. The rule “the last half hour follows the day” earns +1.15 bps gross and −1.89 bps net (t −5.7), and ran significantly in reverse in the 2023 to June 2026 holdout (t −3.71). Pre-registered filter combinations lift the gross result to about 2 bps, none of them above costs.

Retest, Sweep, Order Block: Smart Money Patterns Hit Their Targets Like Chance

We tested breakout with retest, liquidity sweeps and the ICT toolkit (order block, fair value gap, OTE, Silver Bullet, Power of Three) with 3,308 trading rules on ten markets. None passes the multiple-testing correction, and the best robust net t is 2.28. Real levels get the retest no more often than invented ones (share 0.47–0.57 against 0.47–0.56). The best sweep candidate falls from +4.18 to +0.75 bps in the holdout (t 0.34).

RunningFresh Scan 2026 · 9 min read

Time of Day and Calendar: No 15- or 30-Minute Index Window Is Net Positive

We tested 6,316 time-of-day and calendar variants across 15 markets. Before costs, 41 of 1,120 15-minute windows reach |t| above 3 (random markets: 1); after costs, none of the 963 windows in the ten indices is positive. The strongest FX and gold spikes (t up to 13.5) are quote mechanics at the rollover. The only stable find, EURUSD short in the London morning, made +1.86 pips in the search (t 3.4) and −0.30 pips in the holdout (t −0.5).

The Tokyo Fix in USDJPY: a Real Trace, Too Small for Proof, Now in a Pre-Registered Forward Test

Japanese companies buy dollars at the 09:55 Tokyo fixing. In our data USDJPY rises into the fix on every Japanese business day (t 6.7) and falls afterwards; on holidays without a fix the picture turns around. Three rules built on this stayed positive on real broker ticks 2023–2026 (+4.5 to +5.6 bps per trade) but did not pass the global multiple-testing correction. Since 27 September 2026 they run unchanged as a pre-registered forward test until September 2027.